Archive for January 16th, 2007
We still haven’t had much snow, at least not in the North Buffalo area. I had time to get out today and shoot some photos. I wanted to make sure I was able to get some pictures before the ice coating on the trees melts. Below are the first six shots I’ve had time to process. If you have trouble viewing them in your browser (you know who you are 
), click here for a slideshow. Without further ado, here’s the pics.
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Global warming is nothing more than a hypothesis, no more valid than the warnings of an impending ice age in the ’70s.
OK. The human-caused global warming hypothesis is completely model-dependent. We can’t directly observe cars and cows turning up the earth thermostat. Whatever the human contribution there may be to climate constitutes just a few signals among many hundreds or thousands.
All our models of the earth climate are incomplete. That’s why they keep changing, and that’s why climate scientists keep finding surprises. As Rummy used to say, there are a ton of “unknown unknowns” out there. The real world is full of x’s, y’s and z’s, far more than we can write little models about. How do you extract the human contribution from a vast number of unknowns?
That’s why constant testing is needed, and why it is so frustrating to do frontier science properly. . . .
So in the best case, the smartest climatologist in the world will know 100 variables, each one to an accuracy of 99 percent. Want to know what the probability of our spiffiest math model would be, if that perfect world existed? Have you ever multiplied (99/100) by itself 100 times? According to the Google calculator, it equals a little more than 36.6 percent.
The Bottom line: our best imaginable model has a total probability of one out of three. How many billions of dollars in Kyoto money are we going to spend on that chance? . . .
So all ye of global warming faith, rejoice in the ambiguity that real life presents to all of us. Neither planetary catastrophe nor paradise on earth are sure bets. Sorry about that. (Consider growing up, instead.)
That’s why human-caused global warming is an hypothesis, not a fact. Anybody who says otherwise isn’t doing science, but trying to sell you a bill of goods.
Read it all: American Thinker: Why Global Warming is Probably a Crock
[tags]global warming, science, hypothesis, truth, climate, socialism[/tags]
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I missed Monday’s game. I will be at the home rematch Wednesday night cheering for the Sabres. It should be a good game based on Kevin’s recap of the game on BfloBlog. I was disappointed that I missed Miller’s phenomenal save on Mara and did a bit of web searching to find a video. You can click the link below to view terrific video coverage of the shot on ESPN.
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Video link: ESPN.com - NHL - Recap
[tags]NHL, hockey, Buffalo Sabres, Boston Bruins, Ryan Miller[/tags]
